Romney Glacier Succombs to Global Warning

When last we checked in with RCP 20 days ago, Mitt Romney had pulled even in the national polls and was slowly inching up on Obama in the battleground states.

But for the last 20 days the Romney Glacier has been receding. Now, with just 40 days to go, he's given back the state of North Carolina and trails in 11 out of 12 battleground states.

Battleground States:	Electoral Votes	2008 Margin	7/29 RCP	8/18 RCP	9/7 RCP	9/27 RCP
Michigan	16	16.7%	4.2%	7.7%	2.4%	8.6%
Pennsylvania	20	10.5%	5.8%	6.6%	7.7%	8.3%
Wisconsin	10	14.1%	6.0%	3.5%	1.4%	7.8%
Ohio	18	4.7%	5.0%	1.8%	0.7%	5.2%
Iowa	6	9.7%	1.3%	1.0%	0.2%	4.7%
Virginia	13	6.4%	1.2%	1.0%	0.6%	4.5%
Nevada	6	12.8%	5.3%	5.0%	3.3%	4.2%
Florida	29	2.8%	0.6%	1.0%	0.6%	3.1%
Colorado	9	9.1%	3.0%	1.0%	2.3%	2.5%
New Hampshire	4	9.7%	3.0%	3.5%	3.5%	1.0%
North Carolina	15	0.3%	-0.4%	-1.0%	-2.0%	1.0%
Missouri	10	-0.1%	-6.0%	-6.3%	-6.0%	-7.3%
Battleground Average	156	7.2%	2.4%	2.1%	1.2%	3.6%

The last few weeks have highlighted one of President Barack Obama's strengths, foreign policy. While he has an Ambassador's death to explain, he managed to avoid a big showdown at the UN over recognition of Palestine. Mitt Romney may have the stronger position, but eleven years after 9/11 the U.S. public doesn't want to get deeply involved in Libya or Syria or draw a red line that may lead to war with Iran.

Still, we may actually have to hold the election this November. The Obama lead is only half his margin of victory in 2008. Romney only has to peel away half that lead to tie things up. So it's really a 2 point game, and if you believe the polls are being poorly refereed, Romney may actually be winning.

Conventional wisdom is that Ohio is must-win for Romney. I notice though that Romney can get the 270 electoral votes without Ohio by winning Iowa on down. The other conventional wisdom is that Florida is the Romney-stopper for Obama. But Romney could get to 270 without Florida by winning Wisconsin on down.

On the other hand, if Obama wins both Florida and Ohio and adds that to Michigan and Pennsylvania where he has believably big leads, there is no way for Romney to win.