Barack Obama has the advantage, with 201 of the 270 electoral votes he needs all but locked up in 16 states plus DC. Republicans may hope to peel off Minnesota and New Mexico, but don't expect that to happen.
| Obama states: | ECV | Obama | McCain | Difference | 2008 Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC | 3 | 245,800 | 17,367 | 228,433 | 86.8% |
| Hawaii | 4 | 325,871 | 120,566 | 205,305 | 46.0% |
| Vermont | 3 | 219,262 | 98,974 | 120,288 | 37.8% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 296,571 | 165,391 | 131,180 | 28.4% |
| New York | 29 | 4,804,701 | 2,752,728 | 2,051,973 | 27.2% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 1,904,097 | 1,108,854 | 795,243 | 26.4% |
| Maryland | 10 | 1,629,467 | 959,862 | 669,605 | 25.9% |
| Illinois | 20 | 3,419,348 | 2,031,179 | 1,388,169 | 25.5% |
| Delaware | 3 | 255,459 | 152,374 | 103,085 | 25.3% |
| California | 55 | 8,274,473 | 5,011,781 | 3,262,692 | 24.6% |
| Connecticut | 7 | 997,772 | 629,428 | 368,344 | 22.6% |
| Maine | 4 | 421,923 | 295,273 | 126,650 | 17.7% |
| Washington | 12 | 1,750,848 | 1,229,216 | 521,632 | 17.5% |
| Oregon | 7 | 1,037,291 | 738,475 | 298,816 | 16.8% |
| New Jersey | 14 | 2,215,422 | 1,613,207 | 602,215 | 15.7% |
| New Mexico | 5 | 472,422 | 346,832 | 125,590 | 15.3% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 1,573,354 | 1,275,409 | 297,945 | 10.5% |
| Obama total | 201 | 29,844,081 | 18,546,916 | 11,297,165 | 23.3% |
Mitt Romney has 181 electoral votes wrapped up in 22 states. Obama won Indiana and North Dakota in 2008, and he could win them again, but polling shows they are back in the red state column for 2012.
| Romney states: | ECV | Obama | McCain | Difference | 2008 Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 3 | 82,868 | 164,958 | -82,090 | -33.1% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 502,496 | 960,165 | -457,669 | -31.3% |
| Utah | 6 | 327,670 | 596,030 | -268,360 | -29.1% |
| Idaho | 4 | 236,440 | 403,012 | -166,572 | -26.0% |
| Alaska | 3 | 123,594 | 193,841 | -70,247 | -22.1% |
| Alabama | 9 | 813,479 | 1,266,546 | -453,067 | -21.8% |
| Arkansas | 6 | 422,310 | 638,017 | -215,707 | -20.3% |
| Louisiana | 8 | 782,989 | 1,148,275 | -365,286 | -18.9% |
| Kentucky | 8 | 751,985 | 1,048,462 | -296,477 | -16.5% |
| Tennesee | 11 | 1,087,437 | 1,479,178 | -391,741 | -15.3% |
| Kansas | 6 | 514,765 | 699,655 | -184,890 | -15.2% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 333,319 | 452,979 | -119,660 | -15.2% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 303,857 | 397,466 | -93,609 | -13.3% |
| Mississippi | 6 | 554,662 | 724,597 | -169,935 | -13.3% |
| Texas | 38 | 3,528,633 | 4,479,328 | -950,695 | -11.9% |
| Arizona | 11 | 1,034,707 | 1,230,111 | -195,404 | -8.6% |
| South Carolina | 9 | 170,924 | 203,054 | -32,130 | -8.6% |
| South Dakota | 3 | 170,924 | 203,054 | -32,130 | -8.6% |
| Georgia | 16 | 1,844,123 | 2,048,759 | -204,636 | -5.3% |
| Montana | 3 | 231,667 | 242,763 | -11,096 | -2.3% |
| North Dakota | 3 | 2,142,651 | 2,128,474 | 14,177 | 0.3% |
| Indiana | 11 | 1,374,039 | 1,345,648 | 28,391 | 1.0% |
| Romney total | 181 | 17,335,539 | 22,054,372 | -4,718,833 | -12.0% |
That leaves 156 electoral votes in 12 battleground states, where the election will be decided. Romney needs 89 of these electoral votes, Obama needs only 69. Obama won 11 of these 12 states in 2008. Romney has cut into Obama's 2008 victory margin over McCain in 2012 polling (RCP average) but still has a ways to go.
| Battleground: | ECV | Obama | McCain | Difference | 2008 Margin | 2012 Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 10 | 1,677,211 | 1,262,393 | 414,818 | 14.1% | 6.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 3,276,363 | 2,655,885 | 620,478 | 10.5% | 5.8% |
| Nevada | 6 | 533,736 | 412,827 | 120,909 | 12.8% | 5.3% |
| Ohio | 18 | 2,940,044 | 2,677,820 | 262,224 | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| Michigan | 16 | 2,872,579 | 2,048,639 | 823,940 | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Colorado | 9 | 1,288,576 | 1,073,589 | 214,987 | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 384,826 | 316,534 | 68,292 | 9.7% | 3.0% |
| Iowa | 6 | 828,940 | 682,379 | 146,561 | 9.7% | 1.3% |
| Virginia | 13 | 1,959,532 | 1,725,005 | 234,527 | 6.4% | 1.2% |
| Florida | 29 | 4,282,074 | 4,045,624 | 236,450 | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 2,142,651 | 2,128,474 | 14,177 | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| Missouri | 10 | 1,441,911 | 1,445,814 | -3,903 | -0.1% | -6.0% |
| Battleground total | 156 | 23,628,443 | 20,474,983 | 3,153,460 | 7.2% | - |
The possibility of a tie cannot be entirely dismissed. Let's say Obama wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa and while Romney wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri. They would each finish with 269 electoral college votes. Ties go to the U.S. House of Representatives, voting by state delegation, which would give the election to Romney.
What about Romney winning the election but losing the popular vote? That is a distinct possibility. Even if Obama maintains his 11 million vote margin of victory in the Obama states, a swing of just 406,000 popular votes in the 6 battleground states above would give Romney an electoral college tie for the win in the U.S. House.
No comments:
Post a Comment