Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Score Mitt Romney a Super Tuesday

Tuesday was a super night for Mitt Romney. Mitt has now won around a third of the delegates he needs to clinch the Republican nomination, and continues to rack up the delegates with a widening lead that is double his nearest rival and beats all his rivals combined.

Candidate NYT WSJ CNN CBS MSNBC RCP
Mitt Romney 415 415 429 391 335 404
Rick Santorum 176 176 169 140 107 161
Newt Gingrich 105 105 118 95 111 105
Ron Paul 47 47 67 38 29 61
Jon Huntsman 2 2 0 2 0 0
Total 745 745 783 666 582 731
         
Mitt Romney 56% 56% 55% 59% 58% 55%
Rick Santorum 24% 24% 22% 21% 18% 22%
Newt Gingrich 14% 14% 15% 14% 19% 14%
Ron Paul 6% 6% 9% 6% 5% 8%
Jon Huntsman 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1144 delegates are needed to win, at least they all agree on that.

You might be excused for thinking Tuesday was Rick Santorum's night with wins in 3 states and a near draw in Ohio. But he may have made a crucial strategic mistake by not challenging Newt Gingrich in Newt's home state of Georgia.

Gingrich's win and Santorum's distant third place finish in Georgia and puts Gingrich in position to beat Santorum in Alabama and Mississippi next week, states Santorum needs to win to overtake Romney.

Call me cynical but I don't buy Newt's $2.50/gallon gasoline platform when he's got two oil state governors, current Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, in his corner.

Still, it's going to be a long slog for Mitt Romney. According to my calculations, it is mathematically impossible for him to get the 1144 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination until May 8. It's now looking like he may not clinch until the California primary on June 5. That's two or three more months of primary campaigning.

Update: more complete counts from 8pm EST 3/7/2012.

Update: So far, Romney has won 14 states, Santorum has won 7 states, and Gingrich has won 2 states.

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