Meanwhile, Mitt Romney effectively cancelled the Kansas win by picking up delegates in the Virgin Islands, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. territories that were famously part of Barack Obama's 57 state strategy in 2008. Well, if you spotted some loose change on the sidewalk you'd pick it up too.
Here's the delegate scoreboard:
| # of delegates secured so far | NYT | WSJ | CNN | CBS | MSNBC | RCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitt Romney | 454 | 454 | 458 | 428 | 377 | 446 |
| Rick Santorum | 217 | 217 | 203 | 179 | 146 | 199 |
| Newt Gingrich | 107 | 107 | 118 | 97 | 112 | 117 |
| Ron Paul | 47 | 47 | 66 | 39 | 31 | 61 |
| | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 827 | 827 | 845 | 745 | 666 | 823 |
| % of delegates secured so far | ||||||
| Mitt Romney | 55% | 55% | 54% | 57% | 57% | 54% |
| Rick Santorum | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 24% |
| Newt Gingrich | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 17% | 14% |
| Ron Paul | 6% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| % of remaining needed to clinch: | ||||||
| Mitt Romney | 47% | 47% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 48% |
| Rick Santorum | 63% | 63% | 65% | 63% | 62% | 65% |
| Newt Gingrich | 71% | 71% | 71% | 68% | 64% | 70% |
| Ron Paul | 75% | 75% | 75% | 72% | 69% | 74% |
In Newt Gingrich fantasyland, MSNBC has him in second place while everyone else has him in a distant third. Santorum can effectively eliminate Gingrich with wins in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday, March 13. Ron Paul could overtake Gingrich, especially if Paul has seeded the caucus state delegate lists the way he claims.
Doing the math, the earliest any candidate can clinch is May 8 when Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia hold their primaries. Even if Santorum were to start winning everything, he can't clinch until the Texas primary on May 29. Unless someone drops out, it's all but certain this will go to June 5 when the big delegate-rich prize California and four other states hold their primaries.
Update: The scoreboard now reflects that MSNBC has dropped Newt Gingrich to third. My calculations show that he can't be definitely knocked out of contention until April 3 at the earliest, at that point there would not be enough delegates left to put him over the top. Of course, Newt can prolong that by continuing to win some delegates here and there.
Ron Paul can also campaign until April 3 without being mathematically eliminated. Ron Paul's support does not depend on electability so his chance to overtake Gingrich will come after Gingrich is no longer remotely viable.
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