Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Republican Field May Have Finally Found Its Equilibrium

The Republican field may have finally found its equilibrium, judging from support on Facebook. Beyond Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry trading places and a continuing Herman Cain surge into a solid 4th place, there has not been much change in position in the last 2 months.

CandidateFriends on 1/16/2011Friends on 3/16/2011Friends on 5/16/2011Friends on 7/16/2011Friends on 9/16/2011Friends on 11/16/2011
Barack Obama17,822,15218,632,33120,413,24522,038,06723,133,52224,076,264
Joe Biden271,971274,670282,433299,388304,953308,062
       
Mitt Romney751,391814,705899,0551,041,4541,110,9381,182,511
Ron Paul307,493307,495356,452419,099510,540588,239
Michele Bachmann150,467187,433258,370422,366462,345459,318
Herman Cain42,28955,72090,146149,820176,534381,105
Newt Gingrich100,489113,269131,779142,281148,009172,841
Rick Perry51,45552,18052,85470,425160,305171,194
Gary Johnson-110,466114,000129,275134,036143,460
Rick Santorum12,21113,25216,22123,48227,86032,215
Jon Huntsman-1,5552,2809,34717,83223,476
       
Sarah Palin2,606,5862,777,5092,957,6273,191,7113,238,0663,254,960
Mike Huckabee522,079541,409586,020
647,376658,920658,660
Donald Trump146,866184,512272,108300,401318,603330,822
Scott Brown--237,462239,086239,053239,094
Bobby Jindal121,977122,353125,614
129,824130,959151,236
Rand Paul-105,001117,287137,580146,080150,434
Jim DeMint127,177129,848133,363143,436148,845149,053
Tim Pawlenty69,98573,13586,907
103,337102,720101,986
Paul Ryan50,90856,49671,923
79,18183,78585,967
Allen West--64,05767,33074,56876,237
John Thune74,75474,83775,21175,44275,24475,222
Scott Walker-61,52763,12964,62166,08367,763
Chris Christie29,38833,99036,53642,56346,67152,405
Mitch Daniels39,41344,52849,90850,61451,17551,548
Mike Pence45,92347,71248,54248,89348,94949,065
Mike Bloomberg29,86230,34431,31632,87936,99538,175
Haley Barbour16,85417,45918,16818,60418,77519,006
Thaddeus McCotter--9,90911,81212,55212,581
Peter King--11,23211,52511,65211,766
Jimmy McMillan-8,3628,6759,1419,98810,676
Roy Moore--708,2358,2948,321
Buddy Roemer-5701,4961,8064,5907,024
John Bolton5,1705,6586,0566,3546,8266,991
Jeb Bush4,8415,0275,3005,5565,7455,803
Fred Karger6818261,4582,1173,3985,355
Rudy Giuliani1,8912,1942,5353,2114,2894,545
Andy Martin--560570573583
Jonathon Sharkey--159170352414
Jon Greenspon581584583583--
       
Total Democratic Friends18,094,123
18,907,00120,695,67822,337,45523,438,47524,384,326
Total Republican Friends5,310,731
5,979,9516,944,3687,841,5078,302,1498,780,051

Obama-Biden fell just short of adding 1 million followers in the last two months, as their pace continues to slow. Perhaps potential supporters have been occupied elsewhere. Still they added 945,851 supporters versus 477,902 for all the Republicans in and out of the race combined.

It was time to scratch all those who never declared or have dropped out. Sarah Palin does stand out with a solid base of support for the future, while Donald Trump has a wet raccoon. The neocon favorite John Bolton and the dynastic Jeb Bush can't even clear the Jimmy McMillan Rent Is Too Damn High line.

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