U.S. Senate Democrats Face Epic Route in 2012

Could Democrats lose the U.S. Senate in 2012? The real question in the face of the current Republican electoral trend is how bad they could lose it.

Democrats must defend 23 U.S. Senate seats in 2012. Republicans only have to defend 10 seats. That's a lot of opportunities for Republicans. A loss of 4 seats would give control to Republicans. A loss of 14 seats would give Republicans a filibuster-proof majority.

Democrats are particularly vulnerable in 8 races, and losing just half of these would oust Harry Reid as U.S. Senate Majority Leader.

Seat	State	Situation
Claire McCaskill	Missouri	first termer elected by only 49.6% in red state
Jon Tester	Montana	first termer elected by only 49.2% in red state
Ben Nelson	Nebraska	cornhusker kickbacker faces red state anger
Bob Menendez	New Jersey	first termer in Chris Christie country
Jeff Bingaman	New Mexico	retiring in purple state
Kent Conrad	North Dakota	retiring in red state
Jim Webb	Virginia	retiring first termer
Joe Manchin	West Virginia	won 2010 special election in red state

Democrats also have some vulnerability in 10 other races. Democrats should win most of these but could lose some of them.

Seat	State	Situation
Dianne Feinstein	California	may retire
Joe Lieberman	Connecticut	retiring
Daniel Akaka	Hawaii	retiring
Ben Cardin	Maryland	first termer
Debbie Stabenow	Michigan	second termer
Amy Klobuchar	Minnesota	first termer
Kirsten Gillibrand	New York	won 2010 special election
Sherrod Brown	Ohio	first termer
Sheldon Whitehouse	Rhode Island	first termer
Herb Kohl	Wisconsin	retiring

So how many races are vulnerable for Republicans? Just U.S. Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts, who will be running for his first full term.