And where did that big lead come from? My theory: A third came directly off support for Mitt Romney. Another third came from Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich. The final third from other candidates and undecideds.
| Candidate | Support | Change from June |
|---|---|---|
| Rick Perry | 29% | +29% |
| Ron Paul | 13% | +5% |
| Michele Bachmann | 10% | +3% |
| Mitt Romney | 17% | -10% |
| Tim Pawlenty | - | -6% |
| Herman Cain | 4% | -6% |
| Newt Gingrich | 4% | -5% |
| Rick Santorum | 3% | -3% |
| Jon Huntsman | 1% | -1% |
| Other | 2% | -3% |
| No Preference | 17% | -4% |
The other gainers since June were Ron Paul and Michele Bachman, who I think both pulled Tea Party support away from Herman Cain. Cain peaked in June. Bachmann may have peaked in July. Romney may also have peaked, but is still in second place.
September will be make or break for Rick Perry. He is untested in the Presidential debates and there are three scheduled for September, one at the Reagan library in California and two in Florida.
Sarah Palin has also indicated she will make a decision on whether or not to make her unofficial campaign for President official by the end of September. So if Rick Perry falters on the debate stage, there is a maverick chomping at the bit and raring to join the race.
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