For 2012 Republicans, Three's a Crowd, Four's a Party

It's time for my bimonthly count of Facebook friends for every Republican hopeful, wishful, wistful, or wasteful wanting to unseat Barack Obama.

Candidate	Friends on 1/16/2011	Friends on 3/16/2011	Friends on 5/16/2011
Barack Obama	17,822,152	18,632,331	20,413,245
Joe Biden	271,971	274,670	282,433
Sarah Palin	2,606,586	2,777,509	2,957,627
Mitt Romney	751,391	814,705	899,055
Mike Huckabee	522,079	541,409	586,020
Ron Paul	307,493	307,495	356,452
Donald Trump	146,866	184,512	272,108
Michele Bachmann	150,467	187,433	258,370
Scott Brown	-	-	237,462
Jim DeMint	127,177	129,848	133,363
Newt Gingrich	100,489	113,269	131,779
Bobby Jindal	121,977	122,353	125,614
Rand Paul	-	105,001	117,287
Gary Johnson	-	110,466	114,000
Herman Cain	42,289	55,720	90,146
Tim Pawlenty	69,985	73,135	86,907
John Thune	75,211	74,837	75,211
Paul Ryan	50,908	56,496	71,923
Allen West	-	-	64,057
Scott Walker	-	61,527	63,129
Rick Perry	51,455	52,180	52,854
Mitch Daniels	39,413	44,528	49,908
Mike Pence	45,923	47,712	48,542
Chris Christie	29,388	33,990	36,536
Mike Bloomberg	29,862	30,344	31,316
Haley Barbour	16,854	17,459	18,168
Rick Santorum	12,211	13,252	16,221
Peter King	-	-	11,232
Thaddeus McCotter	-	-	9,909
Jimmy McMillan	-	8,362	8,675
John Bolton	5,170	5,658	6,056
Jeb Bush	4,841	5,027	5,300
Rudy Giuliani	1,891	2,194	2,535
Jon Huntsman	-	1,555	2,280
Buddy Roemer	-	570	1,496
Fred Karger	681	826	1,458
Jon Greenspon	581	584	583
Andy Martin	-	-	560
Jonathon Sharkey	-	-	159
Roy Moore	-	-	70
Total Obama-Biden Friends	18,094,123	18,907,001	20,695,678
Total Republican Friends	5,310,731	5,979,951	6,944,368

I show the Republican field as a whole adding friends at a faster rate than Obama, 18% to 15%, but they are lagging in numbers with Obama-Biden adding 2,591,093 new friends and Republicans only 1,633,637.

Donald Trump moved up a notch, and now he's on top of Michele Bachmann. But the big news is Herman Cain, whose support has more than doubled as he has moved up 4 spots. He's the dark horse in the Republican field and is coming on fast.

Still I think you have to be above the Biden line to be counted a serious contender. As Joe Biden can't be taken seriously, and has never finished too high in the past Presidential primaries he has run in, anyone who doesn't have as many friends as Biden doesn't qualify as serious yet.

There has been a lot of talk in the press about Jon Huntsman. Time magazine is giving 20:1 odds on Huntsman. I think that's likely being 21st in line for the British throne, nice to be on the list but never going to happen. Jon Greenspon has actually lost a friend, probably journalist Mark Halperin who thought he was signing up for Jon Huntsman.

Mike Huckabee has officially dropped out of contention. That leaves Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul in a three-way. Don't look back, Herman Cain is gaining on you.

Update 5/16/2011 afternoon: Donald Trump woke up this morning, checked the must-read political blogs he follows regularly, saw that he hadn't crossed the Biden line, and announced he is not running in 2012. Another strikeout.

Update 5/19/2011: People keep talking about Jon Huntsman like he is a serious candidate. However, not only hasn't he crossed the Biden line, he hasn't even crossed the the Jimmy McMillan line. That makes him a crackpot candidate, in the same category as people pining for John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani, or Jeb Bush.

Update 5/25/2011: Add Scott Brown, Allen West, Peter King, Thaddeus McCotter, Andy Martin, Jonathon Sharkey, and Roy Moore. Brown's not running but people keep asking me about him and he has a lot of friends.