As of now, Barack still leads Hillary by 96 delegates, with 505 more needed to clinch. On the other hand, if the disputed Michigan and Florida delegates were counted, Hillary would lead by around 32 delegates. Since each has a claim to be the front runner, don’t expect either one to drop out any time soon.
The big dates coming up are April 22, May 6, and May 20. The Ohio victory is very important for Hillary as half the remaining delegates to be selected are in states neighboring Ohio - Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia. If Hillary can sustain double digit wins in those states, that’s her best path to victory. While the party big shot super delegates may prove decisive, expect many of them to sit on the fence for the next several weeks to see what happens before making a commitment.
| Date | State | Delegates | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, March 8 | Wyoming | 18 | Caucus favors Barack |
| Tuesday, March 11 | Mississippi | 40 | Beware the Ides of March. If Barack loses, suspect foul play by crossover Republicans. |
| Tuesday, April 22 | Pennsylvania | 188 | A convincing win for Hillary would put the hurt on |
| Saturday, May 3 | Guam | 9 | This caucus should be irrelevant |
| Tuesday, May 6 | Indiana | 84 | Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary |
| Tuesday, May 6 | North Carolina | 134 | Obama should win |
| Tuesday, May 13 | West Virginia | 39 | Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary |
| Tuesday, May 20 | Kentucky | 60 | Ohio neighbor could go for Hillary |
| Tuesday, May 20 | Oregon | 65 | Obama should win |
| Tuesday, June 3 | Montana | 24 | Big Sky could be the last best place |
| Tuesday, June 3 | South Dakota | 23 | It’s a long road to Rushmore |
| Saturday, June 7 | Puerto Rico | 63 | Embarrassing for Democrats if it goes this far, as Puerto Rico can’t vote in November but can send delegates to the Democratic convention |
| Total upcoming | - | 747 | Barack needs 67% to clinch, Hillary needs 80%. Otherwise, it will take super delegates or disputed delegates to win. |
| Uncommitted super-delegates | - | 359 | The 437 who have already pledged could be persuaded to change their minds |
| January 15 | Michigan | 156 | Would have awarded around 90 for Hillary, 66 uncommitted as Barack foolishly took his name off the ballot too please Iowa and New Hampshire. |
| January 29 | Florida | 210 | Would have awarded around 109 for Hillary, 71 for Obama, 20 for Edwards |
| Total disputed | - | 366 | Counting Michigan and Florida would raise the bar for nomination from 2025 to 2208 delegates |
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