McCain has won 680 delegates versus 462 for all his opponents combined, so he’s on the downhill slope with only 511 more to win. Romney now has the toughest decision on when to quit, as he is spending his own money. Huckabee has set himself up as a power broker by winning the Southern states McCain will need in the fall. In Montana, Ron Paul finished second with 25%, apparently picking up the Unabomber vote.
Clinton leads Obama 823 delegates to 741, but without the party big-wig super-delegates she trails 630 to 635. With 2025 delegates needed to win, they are both still climbing the hill. On the other hand, Hillary has the Michigan and Florida delegates who aren’t supposed to count in her back pocket. Not counting Florida? That’s an indefensible position for Democrats.
The big opportunity for the Democrats is what the turnout shows is likely to happen in the fall. In 4 of the 5 Southern red states that voted February 5, more people showed up to vote for Democrats than Republicans. The Republicans can’t win in November without these states.
| State | Republican voters | Democratic voters |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 982,440 | 1,046,485 |
| Alabama | 563,822 | 539,743 |
| Tennessee | 547,614 | 614,096 |
| Arkansas | 210,152 | 288,484 |
| Missouri | 584,618 | 820,453 |
One way for the Democrats to lose is if Clinton versus Obama gets nasty. They need to fight the good fight, make nice, and join forces. Will it be Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton? On the other hand, if the Iraq situation turns nasty again this summer, that could scuttle McCain.
How long can it last? The Democratic caucus in Puerto Rico is set for June 7. Could Puerto Rico pick the next President of the United States?
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